India's manufacturing sector activity remained broadly flat in June as new orders declined for the first time in over four years and power cuts and fragile economic conditions weighed on the sector's performance, an HSBC survey said.
A high CAD puts pressure on the rupee, which in turn makes imports expensive and fuels inflation.
Mumbai is expected to see the fastest rise in UHNWIs followed by Delhi.
Snapping its two-day gains, the rupee on Monday declined by 48 paise to settle at nearly four-week low of 62.17 against the US currency.
The rupee showed range-bound movement on Wednesday as investors preferred to stay cautious in the unsure market.
The number of draft red herring prospectuses (DRHPs) filed with the markets regulator - Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) - jumped nearly fivefold to 145 in 2021-22 (FY22), compared with just 30 in the preceding financial year (2020-21, or FY21). This was on account of companies rushing to take advantage of a favourable market sentiment towards initial public offerings (IPOs), triggered by an influx of new investors, surge in the secondary market, and encouraging performance of newly listed stocks. In fact, DRHPs filed in FY22 was 4x the previous 10-year average and the highest since 2007-08, according to primary market tracker PRIME Database.
Indian companies are in a precarious financial position.
Market experts attributed the outflow to profit booking and consolidation in the equity market.
In dollar terms, the Indian markets managed to climb back to 2008 levels only in January this year. The subsequent fall in the rupee because of emerging market woes has once again pushed the markets below their 2008 level in dollar terms.
While a coordinated aggressive monetary easing from the central banks is most likely to offer some respite in the near-term, it is unlikely to improve the sentiments.
The department of economic affairs, in its Monthly Economic Review for September, said critical reforms undertaken by the government will put India to a strong and sustainable growth path in the long run.
'A soft landing of the Indian economy would be a long-term positive for the equity markets.'
The American currency regained its buoyant strength after a brief sideways movement following overnight US Fed's optimistic tone about the future of the US economy
Indian benchmark indices may witness bouts of volatility this week as traders roll over positions in the derivative segment on expiry of near-month contracts, say experts.
In worldwide trade, the American dollar traded with solid strength against all major emerging currencies
India's current account deficit is expected to deteriorate in the current fiscal on account of costlier imports and tepid merchandise exports, according to the Finance Ministry's monthly economic review. The review released on Thursday by the ministry also said that global headwinds would continue to pose a downside risk to growth as crude oil and edibles, which have driven inflation in India, remain major imported components in the consumption basket. For the present, it said, "their global prices have softened, as fears of recession have dampened prices somewhat. This would weaken inflationary pressures in India and rein in inflation."
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will have to take far more pro-active steps to rebuild forex reserves, because if the status quo remains, rupee could touch 75 per US dollar by the end of 2014, Bank of America Merrill Lynch said in a report.
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Snapping a two-day fall, the rupee opened strong at 59.49 a dollar from the previous close of 59.76 at the Interbank Foreign Exchange Market and then touched a low of 59.59.
Hawkish guidance by the US Fed raises concerns it could tie the hands of RBI from trimming rates.
India's economy could prove to be the "most resilient" in the subregion of South and South-West Asia over the long term, according to a report by the UN, which says a positive but lower economic growth post COVID-19 pandemic and the country's large market will continue to attract investments. The report titled 'Foreign Direct Investment Trends And Outlook In Asia And The Pacific 2020/2021', and compiled by United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (UNESCAP), stated that inward FDI flows to South and South-West Asia slightly decreased by 2 per cent in 2019, from $67 billion in 2018 to $66 billion in 2019. The growth, however, was mainly driven by India, which accounted for 77 per cent of the total inflows to the subregion and received $51 billion in 2019, up 20 per cent from the previous year.
China's move to devalue its currency has exposed the fragility of its economy.
Markets will continue to remain volatile till the Chinese economy shows some signs of stability
Benchmark stock indices Sensex and Nifty tumbled nearly 1 per cent on Wednesday due to profit booking in banking, financial and IT stocks after a recent rally. The 30-share BSE Sensex plunged 537.22 points or 0.94 per cent to end at 56,819.39 as 24 of its stocks declined. During the day, it tanked 772.57 points or 1.34 per cent to touch a low of 56,584.04. The broader NSE Nifty declined by 162.40 points or 0.94 per cent to 17,038.40 with 39 of its constituents ending in the red. Bajaj Finance was the biggest loser among Sensex stocks, dropping by 7.24 per cent.
More than Rs 2 lakh crore was wiped off from the overall investor wealth
Economist Dr Subramanian Swamy, whose Janata Party merged with the Bharatiya Janata Party in August, has issued the following press statement on the Indian economy and demanded the implementation of a four-point agenda to save it.
The new norms provide an operational framework for FPIs, a new class of overseas investors that club all existing class of investors like foreign institutional investors and Qualified Foreign Investors.
As the central bank continues to increase forex reserves by running down the forward book which totalled $42 billion as of end-July, signalling its strong resolve to build a bigger reserve cushion to aid its expansionary, unorthodox monetary policy, the reserves are set to top the $655-billion-mark by March, according to a report. The forex kitty declined by $2.10 billion to $619.36 billion for the week to August 13 due to a fall in the core currency assets and gold, showed the latest RBI data. The reserves had risen to a lifetime high of $621.46 billion in the previous reporting week ending August 6.
The broader Nifty too fell for the second straight session and closed with a loss of over 62 points, or 0.54 per cent, at 11,520.30, after hovering between 11,496.85 and 11,602.55.
In the longest losing streak of 2017, the BSE Sensex has lost 1,270 points, or 3.91 per cent. It fell to a three-month low of 31,154.03 on Wednesday.
Despite the 3 per cent gain in September 2019, the FPI sell-off during the quarter has seen the benchmark indices - the S&P BSE Sensex and the Nifty 50 register negative returns in Q3CY19.
The ballooning of crude prices has significantly increased the country's oil import bill and it can also lead to a worsening of the current account deficit and fiscal deficit for the domestic economy.
Finance Minister P Chidambaram on Monday said the currency will find its level as steps being taken by the government to contain fiscal and current account deficits will improve investor sentiments.
Forex traders said a stronger dollar also dragged the rupee down.
Sustained foreign funds outflows and the rupee depreciating 68 paise to hit a three-month low of 64.88 (intra-day) against the dollar affected investor sentiment
Domestic mutual funds (MFs) and foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net buyers of stocks in August. Domestic fund houses have continued to invest in stocks, propelled by the success of various new fund offers (NFOs) and strong flows into equity funds. MFs had purchased stocks worth more than Rs 8,300 crore until August 23, according to the data provided on the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) website. Jimmy Patel, MD and CEO at Quantum AMC, says: "The surge in equity investments by MFs is because of two key reasons. One, equity NFOs are getting a strong response from investors, and fund houses need to deploy that money in the markets.
In line with rally in stocks, the Indian rupee on Monday appreciated for the second straight session and closed with a eight paise gain at a one-week high of 61.36 against the Greenback.
The battered rupee gained 225 paise to 66.55 against the dollar today, the most in at least 15 years, after the Reserve Bank of India eased pressure in the currency market by starting a facility for state-run oil refiners to buy foreign exchange.
After turning net buyers for the fifth straight month till June, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) withdrew a net of Rs 11,743 crore ($1.7 billion) in July. This was their highest outflow since October 2018.
Equity indices gave up early gains to close in the red for the third session on the trot on Wednesday, weighed by selling in banking and finance counters amid inflationary pressures and persistent foreign fund outflows. A weak rupee and lacklustre global cues also kept buying sentiment in check, traders said. The 30-share BSE Sensex opened on a firm footing but failed to hold on the momentum, finishing 237.44 points or 0.41 per cent lower at 58,338.93. On similar lines, the broader NSE Nifty dipped 54.65 points or 0.31 per cent to close at 17,475.65.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to hold its policy interest rate at 6.75 per cent next week to stifle inflation.
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